Lecture 2003-12-03
"Personal Reflections on Japan over 30 Years"
H.E. Sir Stephen Gomersall

The ballroom of the ambassador’s residence was filled to capacity for our last meeting of the year, at which the British Ambassador, H.E. Sir Stephen Gomersall, spoke on “Personal Reflections on Japan over 30 Years”, combining intimate reminiscences and pertinent observations. To the text of his speech he had given the title “Enchanted Isle”. Two other ambassadors were also present: Mr. Pádraig Murphy from Ireland, and Mrs.  Michèle Pranchère-Tomassini from Luxembourg.

Sir Stephen spoke first of the old-fashioned image  of Britain that Japanese people had -- and liked to keep -- and then of the questions put by British visitors that he had had to answer: how was it that Japan seemed to be threatened by economic breakdown, and, if that was the case, how was it that life seemed to carry on as normal? Other mysteries were how the same political party had virtually remained in power for fifty years, and who was in charge. When he had come back in 1999 after ten years he had immediately noted many changes, but Japan had not in fact changed as fast as the rest of the world; although it was at the centre of global technology in a global world, it still preferred to be sufficient unto itself. But Japan, with its massive GDP, had the power to do great things, and nearly every Japanese realised that seclusion was no longer an option, though none would say this at present.

When he first arrived in 1972, at the time of the Kakuei Tanaka cabinet, many areas outside the big cities still looked like parts of Southeast Asia today. He recalled one visit to an onsen, where the water was boiling hot, and he had to accustom himself gradually. There were two well-bronzed farmers in the bath, and they gradually edged towards him. Eventually, seeing his lobster-coloured skin, one said to the other, “Yappari, gaijin da!” In those days, too, a kotatsu was often the only form of heating. There were distinctive aromas, and distinctive foods, which one had to get used to. Another experience which he shared with most foreigners was to be bowled over by  Japanese kindness towards Westerners.

Those were the days of spectacular economic growth. He recalled taking a party of British MPs to visit the Nippon Steel Works at Yahata, with their massive furnaces and chimneys; one chimney still stands today as the entrance to a theme park built on the site. This was also a period of political vigour, and a clear division between left and right.  By the time of his second tour, in the 1980s, Japan was focussed externally on the United States, and Europe was hardly on the Japanese map. These days, Japan’s economy has been relatively unsuccessful, but Japanese society has advanced in many other ways. Japan is more pluralistic in its values, and individuality is more accepted. There has been a great growth in NPOs, driven especially by young people. The economy, too, is finally showing the benefits of restructuring.

Going further back in history, Sir Stephen noted the role that Britain had played during the early days of the modernization of Japan. His duties had taken him to many places where the contributions of Britons were still celebrated locally. More recent history, including the Second World War, had largely remained a buried issue, and he was grateful for the efforts of many in Japan to help former PoWs deal with their personal traumas. Japanese of the postwar generation told him that they knew very little about Japan’s colonial or wartime history.  In this connection, he found museum exhibitions instructive. One in Kagoshima prefecture dedicated to kamikaze pilots showed them as pathetic victims of wasted flights, far from rejoicing in any kind of sacred mission. He also felt that the Hiroshima museum presented a fairly balanced picture. The new exhibit at the museum attached to the Yasukuni Shrine set out the spread of Japan’s influence to Korea and Manchuria as a necessary response to the encroachment of European powers on 19th-century Asia, and Pearl Harbor as an inevitable response to American pressure on Japan’s supplies. It was vital for today’s young people to have a thorough understanding of the past if they were to build good relations with their Asian neighbours.

In contrast to the past, foreigners in Japan today were accepted as a normal part of the scenery. An entertainment put on by the locals to entertain diplomats on a recent visit to Akita consisted of a display of the Kantô lanterns,  a Japanese dance performed by a lady of certain age in a kimono -- and a Filipino bamboo dance performed by the wives of the local farmers! There had been some apprehensiveness about a possible invasion of British football hooligans during the World Cup, but there had been no trouble; the visiting teams and fans had been charmed by the welcome they were given, and the event had also brought Japan and Korea closer together.

How could one explain Japan’s on-again, off-again economy? Was it a consequence of  Japan’s on-again, off-again politics?  On the one hand, there were the visible signs of prosperity in the skyscrapers lining Tokyo Bay and the banks of the Sumida-gawa, as well as in the new Mori complex in Roppongi.  On the other,  the were the things visitors do not see: day-hire construction workers, struggling farming communities, and the blue tarpaulins in the parks housing the victims of downsizing. And there was also a third side, comprising the collapse of banks and excessive corporate and government debt. Fundamentally, Japan’s recent under-performance had its roots in an outdated political system, a situation that was recognized by Prime Minister Koizumi.  Recovery was too much dependent on the externally operating companies which, living in a world of international competition, had done a great deal to restructure. Problems persisted in the domestic sectors that were tied, politically and financially, to interest groups within the ruling party and the bureaucracy. (It took an economic crisis to teach the political world the need for change, as Britain had experienced in the 1970s.) There were still unnecessary land-reclamation and dam-building projects going ahead,  to provide land and water that were no longer needed. But there was perhaps a good side to such extravagant public spending in the construction of excellent municipal theatres and concert halls.

There were also aspects of the economy that were not amenable to old-fashioned remedies. One was the greying of society.  Not enough income was being generated to support the older population or sustain growth indefinitely.  Set against this, there were three positive signs.  The first was that things were changing naturally, thanks to the opening of Japan to foreign ownership and normal competitive economic forces. The second, foreshadowed by the recent elections, was the future possibility of alternating governments, with politics centred on policies rather than the trading of obligations. And the third was Japan’s increasing contribution to international security activities, which could help it to play an international role commensurate with its status as the world’s second economic power. But there were more fundamental reforms which still needed to be tackled. One was the need for greater decentralization which would lead to a more efficient use of national resources, and another was the outstanding problem of agricultural reform. There was also the question of how to deal with the decline in the working population, perhaps by increasing legal immigration. These highly sensitive issues presented a formidable challenge to politicians, but they needed to be tackled in order to preserve Japan’s vitality in the longer term. Whichever course Japan pursued, it could not be one of seclusion;  it would require thinking about how Japan would help to shape peace and prosperity in Asia and the wider world in the centuries ahead.

A number of questions elicited long and thoughtful answers.  (Unfortunately people at the front tended to address the speaker personally, and as the Q&A note-taker was at the back of the audience, their questions were inaudible!)

To a question on self-sufficiency and immigration, Sir Stephen  said that self-sufficiency in energy was vital, but not in food, as there was a negligible risk of the  collapse of outside markets, and trading especially with neighbouring countries brought with it enormous political benefit.  In the matter of bringing in immigrant workers, Japan would do well to study the cases of Britain and Germany when deciding how to handle the question.

On the conflict between progress and tradition, Sir Stephen mentioned disappearing old buildings and ruined landscapes, but pointed out that these agonizing losses were by no means unique to Japan.  It was, on the other hand, remarkable how many traditions had survived; but in practical matters, clinging to things that had worked in the past was no guarantee that they would go on working in future.

Sir Stephen said about the  young people of Japan that he found many university students to be remarkably well-informed about the outside world. Their lives are harder, however; the employment market today is much tougher than before and there was no reasonable prospect of stable employment. Attempts were once again under way to improve the teaching of English; in three years’s time examinations would include a hearing test; but the current system discourages teachers from emphasizing  speaking  over  writing.

Another questioner observed that British  opinion was sharply divided on the war in Iraq,  and asked Sir Stephen how he, as a diplomat, assessed the situation.  In reply the ambassador said that public opinion was divided but political opinion in Parliament was solidly behind Prime Minister Blair. The U.N. was central to all matters of conflict prevention and resolution, but it lacks power; what can it do to influence behaviour? Member countries have to commit resources; for instance India, Fiji and Ireland have done a lot in the past.  He considered it extremely valuable that Japan was now going to help.

The vote of thanks was given by Mrs. Hisami Kurokochi, Council member and former ambassador to Finland. She observed that it was normal for diplomats to be better observers of a country that the natives, but Sir Stephen’s case was exceptional because his three tours of duty in Japan covered three very different decades: the Tanaka years; the bubble economy;  and the post-bubble period of change.  Many Japanese nowadays seemed to have lost a lot of confidence;  Sir Stephen had given them, with frankness and affection,  assurance as well as food for thought.

The meeting was followed by a reception which provided convivial atmosphere  for greeting friends and making new acquaintances.